11 plays for the coming weeks action, starting here.
https://grandefootball.com/ncaa090122.html
Nothing to sell here. It's all free stuff. But I don't have time to copy and paste 50+ games to multiple forums each week. Check it out.
And an example write up from one of Saturdays games.
East Carolina +11 vs NCST
Both teams are poised to have good seasons, which makes this line a bit puzzling. The stat models come up positively for taking the dog here, as the consensus model has NCST by 3, with no real outliers, the other models hitting with between 1 and 4 point victories for the Wolfpack. The pure yardage model has this as almost a dead heat, with NCST prevailing in that model by about half of point, which I round up to 1, but this illustrates how close these teams appear to be.
East Carolina comes in here with a senior QB Ahlers who is all but guaranteed to leave ECU as the Pirates all time passing leader. On the defensive side of the ball, the Pirates return 8 starters. The Pirates were 7-5 last season, after starting 0-2, they won 7 of their last 10 games. Lets analyze the 5 losses.
Lose to Appalachian State in the opener, 33-19. App St went on to go 10-4 on the season. ECU then lost in game 2 to South Carolina, 20-17 as 2.5 point dogs. South Carolina would post a 7-6 record on the season playing in the sports toughest conference, the SEC. The next 3 losses were to the top 3 teams in the AAC; UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati. As a ten point dog at UCF, the Pirates were in the game until the end, losing 20-16. The following week they forced Houston to overtime before succumbing 31-24 as 13.5 point dogs. Finally, they closed out their season getting thrashed by 4th ranked and playoff bound Cincinnati, losing 35-13 as 14 point dogs. Their 5 losses were to a very impressive group of teams that were 51-17 on the season, and ECU was legitimately in 3 of those games with a chance of pulling the upset. This ECU team looks well under rated.
Breaking down the stat models, I do come up with a very slight edge for NCST, and that seems to evolve mostly from the Wolfpack efficiency on the defensive side of the ball. Yardage wise, I actually come up with a slight advantage for ECU.
It looks to me as if East Carolina is likely to give NCST all they can handle. Let’s take the generous points.
EAST CAROLINA +11
https://grandefootball.com/ncaa090122.html
Nothing to sell here. It's all free stuff. But I don't have time to copy and paste 50+ games to multiple forums each week. Check it out.
And an example write up from one of Saturdays games.
East Carolina +11 vs NCST
Both teams are poised to have good seasons, which makes this line a bit puzzling. The stat models come up positively for taking the dog here, as the consensus model has NCST by 3, with no real outliers, the other models hitting with between 1 and 4 point victories for the Wolfpack. The pure yardage model has this as almost a dead heat, with NCST prevailing in that model by about half of point, which I round up to 1, but this illustrates how close these teams appear to be.
East Carolina comes in here with a senior QB Ahlers who is all but guaranteed to leave ECU as the Pirates all time passing leader. On the defensive side of the ball, the Pirates return 8 starters. The Pirates were 7-5 last season, after starting 0-2, they won 7 of their last 10 games. Lets analyze the 5 losses.
Lose to Appalachian State in the opener, 33-19. App St went on to go 10-4 on the season. ECU then lost in game 2 to South Carolina, 20-17 as 2.5 point dogs. South Carolina would post a 7-6 record on the season playing in the sports toughest conference, the SEC. The next 3 losses were to the top 3 teams in the AAC; UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati. As a ten point dog at UCF, the Pirates were in the game until the end, losing 20-16. The following week they forced Houston to overtime before succumbing 31-24 as 13.5 point dogs. Finally, they closed out their season getting thrashed by 4th ranked and playoff bound Cincinnati, losing 35-13 as 14 point dogs. Their 5 losses were to a very impressive group of teams that were 51-17 on the season, and ECU was legitimately in 3 of those games with a chance of pulling the upset. This ECU team looks well under rated.
Breaking down the stat models, I do come up with a very slight edge for NCST, and that seems to evolve mostly from the Wolfpack efficiency on the defensive side of the ball. Yardage wise, I actually come up with a slight advantage for ECU.
It looks to me as if East Carolina is likely to give NCST all they can handle. Let’s take the generous points.
EAST CAROLINA +11
